October 1, 2019 by The Burgundy Breakdown

Should Dwayne Haskins Start?

Primary Photo Credit – Sports Illustrated

Here is my Breakdown of the pros and cons to keeping Dwayne Haskins as the starter this season along with what I would do if I were in charge.

Sunday’s loss to the Giants was not the ideal first step for Dwayne Haskins and his career development. It seems clear that he wasn’t prepared fully which led to some missed reeds, poor timing, and holding onto the ball a little too long. This is all completely understandable as the game plan was not built with him in mind because the plan going in was not to bench Keenum before the end of the first half. While there were some missed throws that are unacceptable, like the quick out to Vernon Davis in the end zone (a route that Haskins surely throws as part of his warm-ups every single day), we certainly didn’t see enough good or bad to know anything about this young QB.

The big question looming over this team now is how to proceed with Haskins. Should he start the rest of the season or should he go back to the bench and finish his ‘redshirt season’ as originally intended? Here is my Breakdown of the pros and cons to keeping Dwayne Haskins as the starter this season along with what I would do if I were in charge.

As always, if you enjoy the content, follow me on twitter @TheBurgundyBD and like/share/comment to let me know exactly why you think I’m right or wrong!

Why Haskins Should Start

1. Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, & Jake Fromm

I very seriously contemplated putting this last, but I would be lying if I didn’t tell you these 2020 draft eligible QBs weren’t the primary reason you need to start Dwayne Haskins. Kevin Sheehan has been banging this drum on his radio show and podcast over and over, and he is not wrong. As much as we need to build for long-term success, we also need to know if we are dealing with a QB that is all potential and no success. I don’t believe he is too fragile to handle scrutiny and we need to know if he will progress while facing adversity or if he will falter. If we were wrong on Haskins, we can’t afford to make a bad decision worse by holding on too long and missing out on one of the guys above.

2. Game Experience

While there is a lot of development that happens during the week in practice, there is no substitute for seeing how a guy performs in pressure situations. Players like Kirk Cousins are practice all-stars but crumble on Sunday when it matters most, while others seem to come alive when under the lights. We need to know if Haskins is a gamer.

Also, development happens more rapidly against live competition and success compounds more quickly. If the Redskins called an offense to build on his strengths, regardless of how simple, you can inspire confidence in Haskins that could speed up his overall development. Believing you can succeed is the first step to growth in the NFL and an increased self-confidence can help him engage more fully with his raw talent.

3. Tryout for Next Regime

Considering that this is very likely Jay Gruden’s final year in Washington (and hopefully Bruce Allen’s as well), the team needs to learn if they can build around Haskins. The Redskins can’t afford to be further limited than they already are in their Coach/GM search by only considering candidates that loved Haskins coming out of Ohio State. Showing development at this level could open the doors to more quality candidates coming forward. Regardless of the organizational issues under Dan Snyder’s ownership, having a good roster base and a QB with real upside will always attract quality leadership.

Why Haskins Should NOT Start

1. He’s Set Up to Fail

While some really believe the local media is out to get the Redskins, the rumors that the coaching staff and front office were divided on Dwayne Haskins was not made up to stir controversy. Do you really want to see a dozen games where Gruden pieces together a game plan that is ill-suited to Haskins strengths?

We’ve seen this song and dance before. While I’m sure we can all agree that RG3’s career was ultimately stifled here because he couldn’t stay healthy, it was also clear that Jay never wanted him as his QB and never put any real effort to building a system around his talent. I don’t want to see that again. Unless Gruden is fired and the interim coach has long-term goals in mind, starting this season is a recipe for disaster for Dwayne Haskins.

Even if we assume that Gruden (or whoever the interim HC is) commits to building a scheme for Haskins, there just isn’t very much talent around him to help. Despite surprising play from Flowers and Penn, the offensive line is not very strong. Haskins won’t have a running game to rely on and he’s going to take a lot of hits in the pocket as he tries to decipher what defenses throw at him. Unless we get miraculous game plans, this will quickly lead to poor habits and predetermined decisions that only backfire and stunt Dwayne’s development.

2. Long Term Decisions Require Patience

There are some things we know. We know that Dwayne Haskins has a big arm, we know that he has an ideal build (6’3” 229 lbs) and functional athleticism, we know that he has the ability to throw from multiple angles, and we know that he is willing to be patient and wait for his opportunity. Once he begins to fully understand the speed and nuance of an NFL offensive scheme, there is no reason to suggest he can’t be a top half of the league starter for the Redskins.

How could we possibly decide to move on from him after 1 year in a system that isn’t designed for him and is run by a coach who won’t be here next season? The short answer is that we can’t. Regardless of the potential talent that might come out in the 2020 draft, we need to make long term decisions as a franchise in order to build a consistent winner. The traits that Haskins has will be enough to attract a new coach and GM but playing him in Jay’s lame-duck season can only hurt those prospects.

Success requires patience.

If I’m in Charge: Do NOT Start Dwayne Haskins

While I believe that Haskins has the resilience to whether a tough season, I don’t see a point in putting him through the media-onslaught. I don’t think Gruden can coach a system that will benefit Haskins, and I don’t think this team needs an off-season shrouded in controversy over whether we should get rid of him. Not to mention the fact that bad habits can form while Haskins tries to do anything he can to win. We need to set him up for success for this organization to be successful and playing him under Gruden is counterproductive to that goal.

While I do believe in all 3 points made for why he should start, I can’t get past the number 1 point for why he shouldn’t. Dwayne Haskins is set up to fail right now with this situation and this head coach.

As always, thanks for reading! Follow me @TheBurgundyBD on Twitter and comment with your thoughts!

September 17, 2019September 17, 2019 by The Burgundy Breakdown

Don’t Give Up Yet, Redskins Fans

Here is my Breakdown of the 7 reasons for hope this season along with a Breakdown of the Redskins winnable games on the remainder of the schedule.

It can be easy to become dejected after watching our beloved Redskins start 0-2 with both loses coming from within our Division. We spent an entire offseason preparing for the defense to take a big step forward, and we have been sorely disappointed through two games.

I promise you that I am not a delusional fan. I understand that our defense has woefully underperformed in almost every way possible. We have fallen flat trying to prevent the big play and we have let teams hit us for long sustained drives on a remarkably consistent basis thanks to a horrific third down defense. It only makes matters worse that these performances come against teams that represent two of the most hated fanbases by Redskins faithful.

So please, believe me, I understand. However, the season is long from over, and there is a lot of football yet to be played. Here is my Breakdown of the 7 reasons for hope this season along with a Breakdown of the Redskins winnable games on the remainder of the schedule.

As always, if you enjoy the content, follow me on twitter @TheBurgundyBD and like/share/comment to let me know exactly why you think I’m right or wrong!

Reasons for Hope

1. Case Keenum/Offensive Production

Imagine we spoke in August, and I told you that through 2 games, Case Keenum would throw for over 600 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs, and a passer rating of 111.2. After you finished crying out of excitement, you would have bet all your money that we would be 2-0 right now.

Before you rush to lament me in the comments, I understand that stats aren’t everything, but they aren’t nothing either. At the end of the day, the offense with Case Keenum has outperformed expectations and has looked like a competent unit. I am aware that some plays have been missed here and there, but the offense has done more than enough to give us a chance to win both of our first two games.

If the offense can continue to produce without turning the ball over, there is a lot of room for hope going into the rest of the schedule. Despite starting off with a worse record compared to 2018, this offense has put together stronger performances than we saw in any game last season, which is important to remember. The tide will turn, but the foundation this offense is building under Case Keenum is looking good.

2. Terry McLaurin and Trey Quinn

I don’t think anybody would argue that Terry McLaurin has been anything short of a revelation through his first two games. After an impressive training camp (even though we didn’t see him much in preseason action), he has taken control of the X receiver role and has been dominant. I can’t remember the last time we had a receiver, especially one we drafted, that could use his physicality to make contested catches while also being able to take the top off the defense. 10 catches for 187 yards and 2 TDs represents a fantastic start for the third-round pick (and he’s been great on my fantasy team too!).

Fortunately for the Redskins, there seems to be another young receiver breaking out this season in Trey Quinn. From the slot, Quinn has clearly proved to be a favorite target of Case Keenum in crunch situations, as we’ve seen him targeted regularly when we need a 1^st down. He was also the target of a 4^th down completion against the Cowboys that led to our 2^nd score. Combining a mixture of sure hands and a 6^th sense for his position on the defender, Quinn looks to be the slot receiver Jay has been raving about.

While the rest of the league may view the receiver position as a weak spot for the Redskins, I don’t see any reason to think they can’t be part of a passing attack that could carry this team when needed.

3. Eventual Return of Jordan Reed

I’ll keep this one short. I don’t know when it will happen, but Jordan Reed will return from his concussion at some point, and he will dynamically improve this offense. Not only will his unique skillset demand production, but his mere presence will open things up for guys like Chris Thompson and Trey Quinn as teams will have to dedicate their strongest cover-safety to stopping Reed.

4. Surprising Play from Donald Penn and Ereck Flowers

As a fanbase, we must accept that Trent Williams may not come back. However, Penn and Flowers have looked solid so far against 2 teams with a strong defensive front. They have not been perfect by any means, but they are nowhere near the weak link that was expected heading into the season. Even if Trent doesn’t return, there is no reason to expect his loss to hinder our offensive production, which is great news for hope!

5. Return of Jonathan Allen

We heard all summer about the 3-headed monster on the defensive line led by an emerging star in Daron Payne. Through a regular rotation, the expectation was that we would have a dynamic front throughout the game that was always fresh. Losing Allen meant that rotating would not be as much of an option, and this anticipatedly dominant defensive line just hasn’t been able to stay fresh for an entire game. Daron Payne has still flashed some big plays, but it just isn’t the same.

However, if you think losing Allen is only impactful because of the rotation, you just don’t understand football. I know what they said about Payne being the next big thing but make no mistake about it. Jonathan Allen is the strongest player of the 3-headed monster. Excellent strength and depth are great to have but losing your best player will always be felt. Allen is the anchor to this line that eats the double teams and commands attention from offensive coordinators. He does the dirty work that allows everyone else to shine, and somehow managed to get 8 sacks last season anyway. His return will be immediately impactful on this defense as he is the silent embodiment of the Alabama mindset that we hoped would drive this defense.

6. They Are Who We Thought They Were

Everyone needs to just relax. The Eagles and the Cowboys are two teams with Superbowl aspirations that may have a chance of getting there. Form a roster standpoint, they are both easily top 5 in the league, and we just happen to be unlucky enough to have them both in our Division.

As for a reason for hope, we just need to look at the defensive rosters we faced in the first 2 weeks. Dallas and Philadelphia both have a top 5-10 defense, and we still managed to put together sustained drives as an offense. While we do have to face these teams again, we are unlikely to see many defenses as strong as these two in the rest of our schedule (especially ones that also have a dynamic offense). This should give all fans hope that we will have a productive offense throughout the season to help buoy any defensive struggles.

Speaking of defensive struggles, I think everyone needs a dose of perspective. We have played 2 teams with a dynamic quarterback, strong receiving corps, and dominant offensive lines. With injuries limiting our depth in the secondary and the defensive line, I’m not sure we could have expected anything different. I know we all hoped we could steal a win in the division to start the season, but the world hasn’t ended just because these teams are who we thought they were. Relax.

7. Remaining Schedule

Outside of our remaining matchups against the Cowboys and Eagles, there are a lot of very winnable games on the schedule, as very few teams remaining will be as strong as our first two opponents. We knew that the beginning stretch of the schedule was going to be the most difficult few weeks of the season, so now is not the time to hit the panic button. As things begin to take shape around the rest of the league, there is a lot of reason for hope when looking at the remaining schedule for the Redskins.

Winnable Remaining Games

As of today, these are the games on the remainder of the schedule that I believe are very winnable. As recent Redskins history would show, it is very likely that we will lose at least 1 game that seems like a guaranteed win. However, recent history would also suggest that one of the games we don’t expect to win (Patriots, Packers, Cowboys, Eagles) will be a surprise upset in our favor. Here’s my Breakdown of which teams we can reasonably hope to defeat this season.

Chicago Bears in Week 3

I understand that the Bears have faced 2 strong defenses in the Packers and the Broncos, but so have we. Nothing on the Bears offense scares me and that starts with Mitch Trubisky. I feel confident that we can score against a strong defense and I am not worried about having a shootout with their offense.

New York Giants in Week 4 AND Week 16

I don’t care who plays QB for this team, they do not have enough talent on either side of the ball. I don’t expect much resistance at all from their defense, so we should not have trouble outscoring the Giants.

Miami Dolphins in Week 6

Unless you live under a rock, there’s no need to explain this one.

San Francisco 49ers in Week 7

They are 2-0 but have beaten very bad teams in Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. Garoppolo has led an offense that is scoring, and there is certainly talent on the defense, but I think this is a very winnable game. I certainly don’t think this will be an easy victory for the Redskins, but I’m not particularly scared of any player on the 49ers enough to take them off this list.

Minnesota Vikings in Week 8

This may be the biggest predicted coin flip. The Vikings have a lot of talent on their roster, but they also have Kirk Cousins as their QB who doesn’t tend to handle pressure well. On Thursday night in prime time, this will be a test of who is worse on a national stage. Winnable is an apt description for this game.

Buffalo Bills in Week 9

Is anyone scared of Josh Allen? Really? I like their rookie RB Devin Singletary, but they are still the Bills.

New York Jets in Week 11

I would say this depends on if Sam Darnold returns from having mono, but he wasn’t exactly lighting it up before getting sick. For the record, I would not be surprised if he is still out this late in the season as Mono can sometimes linger for several months.

Regardless of who plays QB, I think we can consider this a winnable contest.

Detroit Lions in Week 12

I would consider the Lions a coin flip. They certainly have a strong offense, but they are a team that seems to play up or down to their competition regularly (see week 1 tie vs the Cardinals). By no means is this a sure thing, but it is certainly winnable.

Carolina Panthers in Week 13

It is possible that Carolina begins to hit their stride by this stage of the season, so this is not a guarantee by any means. However, an early loss to Tampa Bay is not a good look, especially with Cam Newton looking like he has taken a step back as a QB and athlete. Also, can you name any significant threats at receiver for this team? I know McCaffrey is a dominant player, but we did a great job of stifling him last season. Winnable is the appropriate designation for this game as of today.

All in all, I think there is a lot to look forward to this season. We may not be a Superbowl contender, but there are a lot of winnable games on the remainder of the schedule, and this doesn’t even account for two late-season contests against the Cowboys and Eagles. We may have one loss against both teams already, but Division games are never a guarantee in either direction.

#HTTR

As always, thanks for reading. Follow me @TheBurgundyBD on Twitter, and check out some of my latest content below!

Redskins Roster Grades by Position

Best/Worst-Case Scenario for Redskins 2019 Record

September 4, 2019 by The Burgundy Breakdown

Redskins Roster Grades by Position

Here is a quick breakdown and letter grade for each position group for the Redskins. Using a standard GPA scale, I’ll take these values and see what it means for the roster as a whole!

Following up on my Best/Worst-Case Scenario, which included an ultimate prediction of a 9-6-1 finish for the Redskins, I thought I would evaluate each position group individually to justify my stance.

If you read that article, you would know that I think this roster is worth 8.5 wins if all outside factors like health and schedule are set aside. There is a lot that can go right or wrong for this squad, but I’m betting on that needle moving ever so slightly in our favor to improve on that base-value by 1 game.

Here is a quick breakdown and letter grade for each position group for the Redskins. Using a standard GPA scale, I’ll take these values and see what it means for the roster as a whole!

Quick note – I am not including special teams in this analysis (kicker, punter, long-snapper) because it would need to be weighted to make sense, and that just gets unnecessarily complicated. For what it’s worth, I would rate these groups B, A, B- respectively, so I’m taking out a factor that would improve the overall score.

As always, if you enjoy the content, follow me on twitter @TheBurgundyBD and like/share/comment to let me know exactly why you think I’m right or wrong!

Offensive Cumulative Roster Grade: C (2.14 GPA)

It’s math. Just keep reading and figure out why before complaining.

Quarterbacks: C-

As Chris Cooley would describe it, a grade of C represents ‘just a guy.’ This is not someone you can really lean on, but they shouldn’t be a detriment either. As of today, C- is appropriate for what I expect from the QB position in 2019. I would love to go higher here, but it just cannot be justified until we see something come to fruition.

Running Backs: B

I’ve seen many fans argue that we could have the best backfield rotation in the NFL. The key word in this sentence is ‘could.’ We’ve seen Derrius Guice carry the ball exactly 11 times since returning from his knee injury, and Adrian Peterson is an aging player with no guarantees for production. Chris Thompson has been electrifying at times in his career, but he also struggles to stay healthy.

I think a solid B is justified based on what we have seen and what we know to be true about the talent in this backfield, but that is as high as I can go for now.

Wide Receivers: D+

Predictably, the receivers are the worst position group on the offensive side of the ball. The D+ is a generous score that is given strictly based on potential. Could we see McLaurin and Quinn emerge to take this group into the C+ or B- range? Sure, anything is possible, but that cannot be the expectation right now.

D+ reflects exactly what they are right now. Just below being ‘just a guy’ and potentially hindering the team.

Tight Ends: B-

A healthy and productive Jordan Reed, combined with one of the best #2 tight end options (from a receiving standpoint) in Vernon Davis, could certainly lead to a higher grade. However, Jordan Reed’s health is as reliable as Vernon Davis forever beating father time. Both are seemingly set to do well as of today (all signs point to Reed having no persistent issues from his concussion), but anything higher than B- would be too generous.

Again, if a C is ‘just a guy,’ then Reed and Davis certainly deserve a step above that. However, it’s not worth taking too big of a step until we see it happen.

Offensive Line: C

I can already hear the groans now. Everyone thinks I’m a homer and the offensive line is a D- all day long. Let me explain why you’re wrong because it’s actually very simple.

Moses, Roullier, and Penn are all C players. ‘Just a guy’ is the perfect way to describe them. I expect them to do their job with nothing special or particularly harmful.

Side note – I know many will try to argue that Morgan Moses is one of the best RTs in the game. I want to believe it, but the tape doesn’t lie. He is serviceable, but he does not play at a consistently high level. Perhaps we just haven’t seen him healthy in a while, but he is a C as of today.

Brandon Scherff is an A at guard. He is a consistent, high-level player deserving of perennial pro-bowl consideration. On the other side of the offensive line (and spectrum) is Ereck Flowers with an F. The average of these two players is a C, and now you understand how the offensive line ends up with a C overall.

Defensive Cumulative Roster Grade: B- (2.78 GPA)

The Defensive deserves a strong grade, but I don’t think this is conservative. This is a very solid unit, but it has some holes.

Defensive Line: A

This is the only position group on this roster deserving of an A grade. The trio of Allen, Payne, and Ioannidis is one of the strongest across the entire NFL. To see more than 20 sacks from 3 primarily interior defensive lineman is a rarity, and that only included 5 from Daron Payne, who looks like he has taken a definitive step up from last year. This will be a fun group to watch this season.

Outside Linebackers: B+

This is a position group that has both a proven star and a young player with tremendous potential.

Regardless of what people say about Ryan Kerrigan, you can mark him down for 13 sacks this season and it would be one of the safest bets across the league. Production means quality, and he is an A player.

Montez Sweat is an exciting and dynamic rookie that should have a strong campaign thanks to the talent around him.

Behind these two is a strong run-stopper in Ryan Anderson and an electrifying speed-rusher in Cassanova McKinzy.

There is a lot of potential being depended on here, which is why I won’t go higher than B+, but I still feel very strongly about this position group.

Inside Linebackers: D

There’s no way to look at this group and see a better grade as of today. SDH, Holcomb, Bostic, and JHC could combine to contribute at the C level or slightly better, but they are still clearly the weakest link on the defense.

Thanks to a strong defensive line, these players may look better than they are as they don’t have to fight off as many blocks, but a D is the appropriate grade here. As a stand-alone position group, there are no proven talents to speak of and may already be impacted by injuries. We will need to see live action to consider anything higher.

Cornerbacks: C+

Josh Norman looks like he may be primed for a very strong season to follow up a resurgent training camp and preseason. Quinton Dunbar doesn’t seem to be showing any signs that his injury last season is still lingering. Jimmy Moreland looks like a dynamic, play-making rookie that everyone is excited to watch.

All 3 of these statements seem true as of today. Seeing these positive signs makes me think this is a group made of players that are better than ‘just a guy,’ but we can’t go too crazy right now.

Safeties: B+

Landon Collins is an A player that makes a dynamic impact on the entire defense. He is as-advertised as an in-the-box safety, and he has also looked strong in coverage when called upon this preseason. Montae Nicholson is a big question mark, but his major issues have always been off the field. We’ve known he is a talented player that can cover a lot of ground on the back end of the defense, and now he seems to be beyond the off-field concerns. This is a duo we should not have to be worried about going into the season, and deserving of a B+ combined grade.

Overall Cumulative Roster Grade: C+ (2.46 GPA)

Technically, a 2.46 is somewhere between C+ and B-, but it is slightly closer to C+. Now you understand why I think the base level for this roster is around 8.5 wins.

If Trent Williams comes back, the offensive line immediately improves to a solid B. If we combine that with QB play closer to C+ and WR play closer to C, then we have a roster that is more firmly in the B- range. This could go even higher if the cornerbacks are as good as they seem, or if the athleticism of the inside linebackers helps them avoid being a detriment to the defense. Perhaps now you can better understand why I’m thinking 9-6-1 for my record prediction.

As always, thanks for reading. Follow me @TheBurgundyBD on Twitter, and check out some of my latest content below!

Best/Worst-Case Scenario for Redskins 2019 Record

August 30, 2019August 30, 2019 by The Burgundy Breakdown

Best/Worst-Case Scenario for Redskins 2019 Record

Primary Photo Credit – NBC Washington

Here are my best-case and worst-case scenario record predictions for the Washington Redskins 2019 season. Also, read to the end to find out my final record prediction for this season.

Predicting how the NFL season will shake out can be one of the biggest wastes of time. If I wrote down 10 things everyone agrees to ‘know’ about teams in the NFL today, I guarantee you that at least 5 of them would be wrong by November. By the end of the season, a couple of lucky guessers will pound their chests and tell you they knew all along, but nobody really has any idea who will have what record or which teams will ultimately make the playoffs.

All that being said, I do think it is useful to predict a range of best-case and worst-case scenarios, so we have realistic expectations going into the season. Think of it like your IQ and the nature vs nurture argument. Who you are genetically will set a base value for your IQ and your ultimate IQ may fluctuate up or down 20 points depending on the environment you are raised in.

Similarly, the Redskins roster makeup creates a base win total for the season, and things like schedule and injuries can fluctuate that win total up or down. This is why all factors are equally important to consider.

Here are my best-case and worst-case scenario record predictions for the Washington Redskins 2019 season. Also, read to the end to find out my final prediction for this season. Yes, I said it is a big waste of time to make a specific prediction. However, I should point out that it would have been difficult for me to be a fan of this team over the last 25+ years if I was not occasionally willing to waste my time.

As always, if you enjoy the content, follow me on twitter @TheBurgundyBD and like/share/comment to let me know exactly why you think I’m right or wrong!

Best-Case Scenario: 11-5

Yes, you can call me a delusional homer. Get it out of your system now so we can move on, please.

Keep in mind that this is the BEST-CASE SCENARIO.

7 Things That Go Right

Best-Case Keenum limits his turnovers and plays like he did in 2017 during the magical Vikings playoff run.
Either Trent Williams plays OR Donald Penn anchors the edge enough to give up fewer than 3 sacks on the season.
Two young wide receivers step up in big ways as key 3^rd down and red zone contributors.
Derrius Guice competes for Comeback Player of the Year and averages 4.5+ YPC.
Chris Thompson and Jordan Reed are healthy for most of the season and contribute to the level of their potential.
The defense is a healthy, top 5 unit fueled by dominant performances in the run game and surprising turnover production from Josh Norman.
Last – A little bit of luck during the schedule from other teams’ misfortune and unforced errors

I can’t see them achieving a better record than 11-5 because their schedule is just too strong as it stands today. However, if all these things go right, especially number 7, the Redskins could certainly hit this mark and own the rest of the NFC East.

Worst-Case Scenario: 6-10

I listened to Kevin Sheehan on The Team 980 take calls on this topic, so I fully expect many of you to also argue that 6-10 is being too generous. Let me explain.

We’ve seen ridiculous injuries happen to this team the last two seasons, including a significant stretch of games last season where we seemingly had a new QB each week. Injuries are the most significant factor in derailing NFL seasons, and yet Gruden somehow managed to finish the last two seasons with 7 wins. For a coach that is regularly criticized for being unable to get teams over-the-hump, he also seems to be very successful at keeping the wheels from falling off. Because of this, I can’t see them doing too much worse than the last two seasons even if everything goes wrong.

7 Things That Go Wrong

The Redskins average 17 points or fewer per game over the first half of the season and Haskins is forced to start because Worst-Case Keenum cannot move the offense consistently.
Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson miss more than 8 games collectively.
Derrius Guice struggles to generate much behind a maligned offensive line and Adrian Peterson begins to show his age.
Trent Williams does not play, and Donald Penn is supplanted by Geron Christian due to poor play.
The defense struggles with injuries along the defensive line wreaking havoc on their ability to stop the run.
Josh Norman regresses physically and Landon Collins struggles in coverage vs tight ends.
Dustin Hopkins gets ‘The Yips’ during big moments.

Again, even with all of this, I see the Redskins stumbling into 6 wins as Gruden does his best to keep the wheels from falling off. I know that things can theoretically be worse than this, but I think this is the most realistic worst-case scenario for this football team.

Final Prediction: 9-6-1

Think back to how I started this article and the concept of nature vs nurture. This Redskins roster is worth roughly 8.5 wins based purely on its makeup. The Defense has too many strong players to do worse than this in a relative vacuum.

I’m going with 9.5 wins because I think some things will go right for this team in 2019. I don’t think it will be perfect enough to swing the base value 2.5 games, but I think they will be fortunate enough to improve their base value by exactly 1 game.

Honestly, I don’t think our schedule will end up playing out as difficult as it seems today thanks to other teams in the NFC East playing worse than expected. Specifically, I cannot see the Cowboys playing to their potential with all of the distractions going on with their 3 top offensive players negotiating contract extensions. Also, after a seemingly never-ending beating from the injury gods, I think we are finally due for a relatively healthy season.

Call me a homer if you want, but I see a lot of potential in this roster. 10-6 is very achievable.

As always, thanks for reading. Follow me @TheBurgundyBD on Twitter, and let me know what you think!

August 23, 2019 by The Burgundy Breakdown

Redskins 2019 UPDATED Roster Projection

Here is my UPDATED 2019 53-man roster prediction PLUS starter projection after week 4 for #TheBurgundyBreakdown.

As always, if you enjoy the content, follow me on twitter @TheBurgundyBD and like/share/comment to let me know exactly why you think I’m right or wrong!

Offense (25)

Quarterbacks (2)

On the Roster: Case Keenum (S), Dwayne Haskins

Starter After Week 4: Case Keenum

Notable Cut: Colt McCoy

No changes here other than we now seemingly have a better idea of why Colt McCoy won’t be on the 53-man roster. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jay Gruden choose to die on the Colt McCoy Hill and start him as soon as he’s physically capable, but I expect McCoy to be put on IR after suffering an apparent setback to his leg injury.

I will say that I took a pause to consider my starter prediction after week 4 once I saw Haskins finally look comfortable in live action against the Falcons. He hit some really nice throws, including a beautiful back-shoulder throw to Harmon, but I still feel strongly about my original projection. The first 4 weeks of the season represent a significant challenge on paper, but I expect Keenum to do just enough to hold onto the starting job. I’m not saying Haskins won’t start at some point this season, I just think it will take longer than a month for Keenum to lose the job.

I’ve heard the argument that Jay’s best chance at keeping his job is to make Haskins his advocate by investing in him early. I don’t buy it. Jay’s only chance at being the head coach of the Redskins in 2020 is to make the playoffs this year. If the Redskins are at least 2-2 through 4 weeks, don’t be surprised if Haskins stays on the bench for fear of the season taking a turn for the worse.

Running Backs (4)

On the Roster: Adrian Peterson (S), Chris Thompson (S), Derrius Guice, Samaje Perine

Starters After Week 4: Derrius Guice, Chris Thompson

Notable Cut: Byron Marshall, Craig Reynolds, Shaun Wilson

I’m giving in to my personal better judgment and adding Samaje Perine to the 53-man roster. This is not the move I would make, but I can’t pretend that it isn’t obvious that Gruden is leaning in this direction. I will say, however, that Perine finally looked worth the roster spot against the Falcons, and I’m sure Gruden will be using that film to argue against anyone who doubts the move.

I mentioned in my What2Watch4 article that I wanted to see if they would call a screen play for Guice since he has looked strong as a receiving threat throughout training camp. Not only was his number called for a screen, he also looked solid on some other check-down throws. Because of this, I don’t think the Redskins need to worry about having a Chris Thompson backup on the roster since Guice can easily fill in on 3^rd down duties, which leaves Byron Marshall out in the cold.

I would have loved to see more of Shaun Wilson, but we still don’t know the severity of his injury. I also thought Reynolds looked more like a natural talent compared to Perine, but I don’t know if anything would have pulled Gruden off the Perine support team. I’ll be looking for Reynolds to hopefully make it to the practice squad and Wilson to go to IR to maintain team control.

Last note on the running backs; Guice is just that dude! Holy cow! I’m indescribably excited to see him dominate this season alongside Peterson and Thompson!

As with my initial prediction, I’m listing Guice as the starter after week 4, but I expect Guice and Peterson to essentially alternate who gets the larger share of the carries week to week.

Receivers (7)

On the Roster: Josh Doctson (S), Paul Richardson Jr. (S), Trey Quinn (S), Terry McLaurin, Robert Davis, Kelvin Harmon, Darvin Kidsy Jr.

Starters After Week 4: Josh Doctson, Terry McLaurin, Trey Quinn

Notable Cut: Cam Sims, Brian Quick

Reluctantly, I am not making any changes to my prediction for the receivers. I took a long pause to reconsider after seeing Cam Sims finally make some strong plays against the Falcons, but I just don’t think it was enough. Let me explain.

First, the way the Redskins played Doctson showed me that he is still the starting X receiver, and they wanted to get him loose but not risk injury. There are no viable trade partners, so he is not going anywhere. I would still put my money on Doctson surprising everyone by increasing his production volume considerably this season, and I’m excited to watch how it plays out.

After Doctson, 4 receiver spots are LOCKS from my perspective. Richardson, Quinn, and McLaurin are all unanimously agreed upon to make this squad, and Kelvin Harmon is a lock simply because of his draft status. There’s no way he clears waivers if cut, especially after showing some eye-popping talent against the Bengals and Falcons. Assuming the Redskins keep at least 7 receivers, that means that Cam Sims is battling with Darvin Kidsy and Robert Davis for the last 2 spots.

I don’t see a scenario where Kidsy does not making this team after having more than double the receptions of any other receiver on this team during the preseason, including being the first projected non-starter to log a catch against the Falcons with the first unit. I also must consider that he is slightly stronger on special teams and more adept as a slot receiver compared to Davis and Sims. We still haven’t seen Quinn do much in live action thanks to injuries, so I think it is fair to say that a reserve receiver is more valuable if he can backup the slot position versus being able to back up the X or Z positions.

This means Cam Sims and Robert Davis are really the comparison we need to review. Both have size (Davis is 6’3 and Sims is 6’5) and tons of potential, so I really see this as a relative coin flip. I was very close to picking Sims, especially after remembering that Jonathan Allen mentioned Cam Sims as being a surprise contributor when interviewed in training camp. However, I am still putting my money on Robert Davis for 3 reasons.

First, he has made the bigger plays this preseason. It can’t be ignored that he keeps making plays in live action while Cam Sims has not done much (up until the Falcons game).

Second, I think Robert Davis is better on special teams which is a necessity for a reserve receiver. We saw him involved with two crucial fumble recoveries on the punt team, and I think we saw him play so much with the punt team so the Redskins could really evaluate his viability (a test he presumably passed).

Third, and perhaps most importantly, Davis is just faster (4.45 40 compared to 4.64 for Sims). This contributes to the first two points, and I think it is the ultimate reason he gets the nod over Sims. It’s not an accident that Davis has a knack for getting behind the defense for big plays, and this potential contribution cannot be overlooked.

I could be wrong, but I don’t see Sims making this roster unless Gruden goes with 8 receivers.

Last, I am also sticking with my starter prediction for after week 4. I think McLaurin’s play will demand being on the field, and I see Paul Richardson’s skillset as the most viable for McLaurin to supplant.

Tight Ends (3)

On the Roster: Jordan Reed (S), Vernon Davis, Jeremy Sprinkle

Starter After Week 4: Jordan Reed

Notable Cut: Matt Flanagan, J.P. Holtz, Donald Parham

By virtue of adding Samaje Perine as a 4^th running back to this projection, Matt Flanagan is now off the 53-man roster. That being said, had I kept 4 tight ends to account for Jordan Reed’s health status after suffering a presumed concussion against the Falcons, I would have switched Flanagan for J.P. Holtz.

If you read this blog last year, you would know that I am a big fan of J.P. Holtz as a reserve tight end and starting fullback, so this shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. Flanagan has just not flashed like I had expected this preseason and has not shown consistent hands in clutch moments (see 3^rd down drop on beautiful throw by Haskins under immense pressure vs the Falcons). Holtz, however, has seemingly risen to the occasion each time I’ve seen his number called. He was also the fullback on the goal line offense that attempted to get Guice into the endzone against the Falcons.

The big positive for the Redskins is that keeping Holtz may not be necessary even if Reed misses time during the beginning of the season. Jeremy Sprinkle showed some receiving ability against the Falcons that we have not yet seen from the former 5^th round draft pick. Considering he is touted as our best blocking tight end (basically by default), I would not be concerned if we are forced to use him and Davis for 2 tight end sets to start the season after what we’ve now seen.

Offensive Line (9)

On the Roster: Donald Penn (S), Ereck Flowers (S), Chase Roullier (S), Brandon Scherff (S), Morgan Mosses (S), Geron Christian Sr., Wes Martin, Ross Pierschbacher, Tony Bergstrom

Starters After Week 4: Donald Penn, Ereck Flowers, Chase Roullier, Brandon Scherff, Morgan Moses

Notable Cut: N/A

No changes in this group as there is no 10^th lineman with any real shot at making this roster from what I can tell.

I did make a change to my predicted starters after week 4 to now include Ereck Flowers. I originally had Wes Martin overtaking Flowers by week 5, but I’m coming off that for now based on what I have seen so far. I fully expect pushback from the large faction of the fanbase that is seemingly ready to throw Flowers in the trash after multiple mistakes against the Falcons, and I get it!

I saw all those mistakes too, and yet somehow, I’m essentially doubling down by saying Martin won’t become the starter by week 5! What am I thinking? Well… I’ll tell you.

I saw Gruden point to some of those mistakes postgame as communication errors. I also saw Flowers look like the touted player he once was when all he had to do was block the guy in front of him, especially in the run. He is what I call a ‘phonebooth blocker’ because he is strong as hell and I think he could dominate most players physically in a small space. I expect Gruden and Callahan to coach up the deficiencies enough for Flowers to be serviceable throughout the season.

I do still expect Martin to be the future at LG for the Redskins, but I just think Flowers holds onto the job for longer than a month.

Defense (25)

Defensive Line (5)

On the Roster: Jonathan Allen (S), Matt Ioannidis (S), Daron Payne (S), Tim Settle, Caleb Brantley

Starters After Week 4: Jonathan Allen, Matt Ioannidis, Daron Payne

Notable Cut: Ryan Bee, JoJo Wicker

No changes here as I don’t think Bee or Wicker have done enough to justify being worthy of a roster spot. I think both played well enough to be pulled back to the practice squad, and I don’t see any real risk of them not clearing waivers.

The BIG 3 are just so dominant when playing together that I don’t think the team intends to really rotate anyone else in for any significant playing time – barring injury of course. Rather than keeping a 6^th defensive lineman, I think the team elects to keep a 5^th safety in Jeremy Reaves.

Linebackers (9)

On the Roster: Ryan Kerrigan (S), Shaun Dion Hamilton (S), Jon Bostic (S), Montez Sweat (S), Cole Holcomb, Josh Harvey-Clemons, Ryan Anderson, Cassanova McKinzy, Jordan Brailford

Starters After Week 4: Ryan Kerrigan, Shaun Dion Hamilton, Jon Bostic, Montez Sweat

Notable Cut: Marcus Smith, Marquis Flowers

No changes here either. I spent a lot of time considering whether Josh Harvey-Clemons should be the starter after a strong preseason, but I don’t see that happening unless Shaun Dion Hamilton is injured. I know the team really believes in SDH, and Bostic cemented his spot after looking more than capable against a strong Falcons offense.

That being said, I expect JHC to get significant rotation on the defense, and I don’t expect it to be relegated to strictly passing situations. Not only has JHC put on weight to mitigate his deficiencies in the run game, but these deficiencies are significantly minimized by an elite defensive line that should keep him relatively clean to fill gaps. Combine that with being the best coverage linebacker on the team and Manusky will be hard pressed to keep him off the field.

I also want to point out that Ryan Anderson and Cassanova McKinzy have been a revelation this preseason. While I still think Kerrigan and Sweat will be the starters, I would not be surprised to see a true rotation that ensures Kerrigan and Sweat are rushing full force late into the 4^th quarter.

BULLETIN: THE REDSKINS HAVE THE BEST DEFENSIVE LINE/OUTSIDE LINEBACKER COMBINATION IN THE NFL. PERIOD.

Cornerbacks (6)

On the Roster: Josh Norman (S), Quinton Dunbar (S), Jimmy Moreland (S), Fabian Moreau, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Fabian Moreau, Greg Stroman Jr.

Starters After Week 4: Josh Norman, Quinton Dunbar, Jimmy Moreland

Notable Cut: Adonis Alexander

My first projection had Fabian Moreau as the starting slot corner, but I think his latest injury has opened a door for Jimmy Moreland that just cannot be closed. We saw Moreland get significant playing time with the starters against the Falcons, and he definitely rose to the occasion. I would not be shocked to see Moreau still start the season as the slot corner if healthy, and maybe even hold onto it, but there is not way that Moreland won’t be on the field a ton this season.

There’s just no way to justify keeping a guy with his nose for the ball on the sideline. This may be a bullish projection as Moreau has not looked bad, but it’s hard not to feel bullish about Jimmy F’n Moreland!

I do not know if Adonis Alexander will be healthy to start the season, but I don’t think he makes this squad anyway. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up on the practice squad since the team invested a supplemental draft pick in him, but he has been really disappointing this summer.

I also want to note that Danny Johnson is not mentioned because he is on the PUP list and therefor is not going to be cut. I really liked him last year during the preseason as he was constantly making plays, but he will need to show something when healthy to compete with the rest of the younger standouts that have emerged.

Safeties (5)

On the Roster: Landon Collins (S), Montae Nicholson (S), Deshazor Everett, Troy Apke, Jeremy Reaves

Starters After Week 4: Landon Collins, Montae Nicholson

Notable Cut: N/A

No changes here. Jeremy Reaves has looked strong and is a relative necessity to prevent Apke from ever playing meaningful snaps during the regular season.

I just want to take a moment to recognize that Collins and Nicholson look like a very strong pairing on the backend of the secondary! This season will be fun to watch.

Special Teams (3)

Dustin Hopkins, Tress Way, Nick Sundberg

No changes. Hopkins and Way rebounded from an abnormally sub-par performance against the Bengals and proved why the Redskins did not bring in any competition for these spots.

I’ve heard some fans that are upset about some off snaps from Sundberg. I don’t care. He’s one of the longest tenured Redskins on the roster and has been incredibly consistent over the years. Leave my man alone!

As always, thanks for reading. Follow me @TheBurgundyBD on Twitter, and check out some of our latest content below!

Redskins 2019 Early Roster Projection

August 20, 2019 by The Burgundy Breakdown

What2Watch4 Redskins Preseason Week 3

Primary Photo Credit – Washington Post

We have finally reached the much anticipated ‘dress rehearsal’ preseason game of the 2019 season where we can expect to see at least 2 quarters of play from our starters! Here is my BREAKDOWN of What2Watch4 Thursday night as the Redskins travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons!

If you’re like me, you’ve probably just spent the last 6+ months curled up in a ball desperately waiting for Redskins football to come back. OK… that’s somewhat of an exaggeration. I may have gotten out of my ball once or twice for the combine, the draft, OTAs, and training camp. Nevertheless, this is going to be our first taste of (almost) real Redskins football in a very long time!

After such a drought, I don’t want to miss any of the compelling elements of this game! Since I think you might be like me, here is my BREAKDOWN of everything you should be watching for on Thursday so you don’t miss anything!

As always, if you enjoy the content, follow me on twitter @TheBurgundyBD and like/share/comment to let me know what you think!

QB Play

Photo Credit – sportsnaut.com

First and foremost, everyone across the league is going to be watching to see if Dwayne Haskins gets any reps with the starters. If you read my first roster projection, you would know that I fully expect Case Keenum to begin the season as our starter and still have a hold on it after week 4 (my article was published well before Ian Rappaport reported that Keenum was the likely starter… just saying). However, I am still curious to see if the Redskins alternate series at all. If the intent is to let Haskins sit and learn to start the season, this will be his last chance to go against starter-level talent in a primarily learning environment.

Setting aside the obvious Dwayne Haskins story lines, I am actually very excited to see how Case Keenum performs. If we did not draft Dwayne Haskins, I feel like the fan base would be much more excited for Keenum based strictly on what we have seen in the first two preseason games. What I noticed is a QB with clear command of the plays, a calm presence and anticipation despite shaky play from the offensive line, and some pretty looking accuracy on passes 15+ yards down the field.

Keenum is known as a risk taker, which has led to some issues with turnovers in the past. With extended playing time expected, watch to see his decision making when distributing the football and if he can continue to avoid turning the ball over.

Receiver Playtime and Distribution

Photo Credit – nbcsports.com

The most important thing to watch for with this group is who will get reps with the first team offense. Will we finally see Doctson and Richardson in preseason action? Will Terry McLaurin sneak into the first team offense for a few plays? will Trey Quinn finally make some plays and stay healthy?

There has been a lot of speculation over Doctson’s roster spot on this team. In my roster projection, I predicted Doctson would both make the team and end up the starting X receiver. Thursday night against the Falcons is going to provide a greater sense of the direction the team is leaning with him.

Consider when the Ravens finally cut their first round WR bust, Breshad Perriman. Not only was he playing late into their preseason games with the 3^rd team, but he was also clearly bumped down the depth chart. Even if the Redskins didn’t want to publicly announce moving Doctson to the 2^nd or 3^rd team offense in an attempt to salvage potential trade value, I would have expected them to play him as much as possible in the first two preseason games. For starters, there is no other way to really know if he is worth keeping or if it is time to cut ties. Beyond that, if the Redskins are actually ready to move on like some suggest, he isn’t going to get any trade value sitting on the sidelines.

I’ll also be watching closely to see which back up receivers get snaps before halftime. There is a lot of depth at the receiver position (which is why I project them keeping 7), but the last 2 spots are seemingly up for grabs. Whomever does and doesn’t get snaps early could be very telling of how the coaches see this position shaking out.

Cam Sims is a fan favorite, but I am still waiting to see him stand out. Will Robert Davis continue elevating himself with another TD this week? Will Darvin Kidsy or Steven Sims continue to flash and force their way onto the roster? Can Jehu Chesson flash something on offense to justify keeping a receiver who really is just a strong special teams contributor?

Thursday night will answer a lot of questions for this group.

GUICE, GUICE, BABY!!!

Photo Credit – Washington Post

Early reports suggest we are going to see Derrius Guice for the first time on Thursday, and I could not be more excited! I don’t care if he only plays one series, I just want to see him hit the field again. There may not be another player on the Redskins that is as connected with the fan base as Derrius Guice, and he hasn’t even played a regular season game yet! Imagine what will happen if his career takes off.

I’ll be watching to see how he is used and how he runs. Throughout training camp, Guice surprised everyone by showcasing his receiving capabilities out of the backfield, and I’m curious to see if the Redskins call any screen plays for him against the Falcons. I’m also curious to see if he shows any tentativeness when it comes to contact or making cuts on his surgically repaired knee. All signs suggest he is as mentally prepared as he is physically, but it will still be encouraging to see it in live action.

As for the rest of the backfield, I’m interested to see if Adrian Peterson bothers to suit up for any more plays this preseason. He clearly still has ‘It’, and I don’t think Gruden wants another deathly stare-down like he got last year in the preseason after playing Peterson longer than needed. I’m also curious to see if anyone stands out between Perine, Marshall, and Reynolds. Hearing Gruden this week talk about how he wants to give Perine better looks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get some snaps with the first unit. However, I’m really hoping to be surprised and see someone else get time with the first unit because I’m honestly ready to move on from Perine.

Defensive Line Rotation

Photo Credit – nbcsports.com

The biggest thing I’ll be watching to see is how awesome Jonathan Allen looks in his old-school facemask! I would not want to line up against him right now as he’s looking primed for a breakout year.

I will also be watching to see how frequently Allen, Payne, and Ioannidis are on the field together. I have a feeling they will be rotating to stay fresh, but it will be interesting to see what types of situations the Redskins roll all 3 out at the same time.

While I haven’t seen official announcements yet on the reportedly minor injuries to Caleb Brantley and Tim Settle, I do not expect to see either of these players take any risks and play this week. This means we should see a lot of Ryan Bee, JoJo Wicker, Jonathan Bonner, and Austin Maloata. I’m curious to see if any of these players see the field with the starters or if they will all be strictly relegated to the 2^nd half of the game. Wicker is listed highest on the depth chart, but I personally believe that Ryan Bee has looked stronger so far in the preseason.

If none of the reserve players see time with the starting defense, don’t be surprised if that indicates the coaches are comfortable going into the season with only 5 defensive linemen (3 headed monster + Brantley + Settle).

Offensive Line Battles

Photo Credit – hogshaven.com

I am hoping to see that Donald Penn has officially supplanted Geron Christian for the starting left tackle spot. Christian is just not ready to be relied on, and we can’t have that weak of a link on the quarterback’s blindside. I know many fans are pointing to the strip/sack Penn gave up against the Bengals, but that was 100% on Haskins in my opinion. Gruden mentioned snap count issues by Haskins that led to a slightly delayed start from Penn off the ball which makes a big impact. However, even discounting that, the tackle’s job is to funnel the rusher’s momentum up the field. When you see a sack 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage, it is on the QB for not stepping up into the pocket. After discounting this specific play, I think Penn has clearly been the better option and I’m hoping he starts the game on Thursday.

The other major battle along the offensive line is at left guard between Ereck Flowers and Wes Martin. Even as recently as last week, I would have told you that I was pushing hard for Wes Martin to step into that role ASAP. However, a strong showing by Flowers against the Bengals has definitely changed the conversation for me. He wasn’t perfect, but he was more than serviceable, and he even was able to make up for Christian’s deficiencies on one play to prevent a sack. As of now, I would be completely comfortable rolling into week 1 with Flowers at LG while Martin continues to develop as an eventual starter.

With both battles along the offensive line being relatively up in the air, I will also be watching to see if the coaches choose to rotate these players every other series.

Additional Questions This Week

How will they play Montez Sweat and Ryan Anderson? Will Sweat be relegated to pass rushing situations? Will there be a 3-man rotation with Kerrigan? Will Cassanova Mckinzy sneak into the starting rotation?
Will we get to see the newly rediscovered EXPLOSION from Jordan Reed that we have heard so much about through camp?
Which corner starts in the slot? If it’s Fabian Moreau, how will he look with longer playing time against a talented Falcons receiving group? Who is the first to rotate in between DRC and Jimmy Moreland?
Will we see a predictable run/pass play calling distribution? Will it be run on most 1^st and 10s for almost no gain like we saw so much of the last few years? Will we go pass heavy to test out the QBs?
How will our injured MLB group fare this week? Can the defensive line clear enough gaps to make it a non-issue?
Will we see any major pass interference challenges again this week/will the refs play a major role again?
Can Nate Kaczor corral the special teams units to avoid any major gaffes this week?

As always, thanks for reading. Follow us @TheBurgundyBD on Twitter, and check out some of our latest content below!

Redskins 2019 Early Roster Projection

August 16, 2019August 23, 2019 by The Burgundy Breakdown

Redskins 2019 Early Roster Projection

You voted and I listened! Here is my first 2019 53-man roster prediction for #TheBurgundyBreakdown. As a bonus, I’ve also thrown in who I think will be the starter after Week 4!

As always, if you enjoy the content, follow me on twitter @TheBurgundyBD and like/share/comment to let me know exactly why you think I’m right or wrong!

Offense (25)

Quarterbacks (2)

On the Roster: Case Keenum (S), Dwayne Haskins

Starter After Week 4: Case Keenum

Notable Cut: Colt McCoy

This is probably the section that will garner the most attention. Yes, I’m saying Colt McCoy doesn’t make this squad. Yes, I am saying Case Keenum will remain the starter beyond week 4. Take a moment to digest and let me explain.

First, let me address Colt McCoy. At the end of the day, I have always felt that Jay Gruden would only end up keeping 2 quarterbacks. With Colt originally set to take the top spot thanks to his experience in the system, I was assuming that Keenum would wind up being traded. However, Keenum is picking things up and Colt can’t get on the field, so I think we are dealing with the opposite scenario. I know that Jay loves Colt, but I can’t justify keeping him on the roster if he loses the top spot to Keenum (especially considering the log jam at so many other positions). Depending on how he injury situation plays out, I would not be surprised to see the Redskins try to put him on IR or potentially buy themselves 8 weeks by putting him on the PUP list.

Second, let’s talk about Keenum starting after week 4. Similar to Keenum’s magical run in Minnesota or Alex Smith’s final year in Kansas City, I fully expect Keenum to perform just well enough to hold onto the starting spot (I realize Keenum did not have a top rookie behind him in Minnesota, but he still managed to hold on to a starting role that everyone initially thought was temporary). This is not a shot at Haskins (although I do not think he will be ready to outperform Keenum over the next 2 months). This is more of a reflection of my belief that Jay will not want to rock the boat of a stable offense 4 weeks into the season so long as we are not playing poorly (which I do not expect right now thanks to the defense). As long as we are least 2-2 with relatively decent offensive production, I seriously doubt Jay takes any risk of changing things up with his job on the line.

I know many of you are hoping Haskins will start in the 3rd preseason game and light it up, but we have to be honest with ourselves. Aside from one deep connection with Robert Davis against the Bengals, he just has not looked good so far. I can absolutely see the talent, but you can’t start a rookie who talks to the media after the game about how he’s proud he’s getting better with his cadence etc. He’s just not ready.

Running Backs (3)

On the Roster: Adrian Peterson (S), Chris Thompson (S), Derrius Guice

Starters After Week 4: Derrius Guice, Chris Thompson

Notable Cut: Samaje Perine, Byron Marshall, Craig Reynolds, Shaun Wilson

I expect mild surprise here, but nobody should be completely shocked with this projection. I don’t think Jay’s love of Samaje Perine is enough to save him from the chopping block. Even if he goes the entire preseason without fumbling the ball, he just is not that impressive.

While I agree there is talent behind Perine (especially after Reynolds has looked good so far in the preseason), I don’t see any of these backs being more valuable to this team than the fourth TE I believe they will keep in Matt Flanagan. If we suffer some injuries, there are backs with relatively equivalent talent available throughout the season.

I originally considered Byron Marshall simply because he is currently holding the top kick returner spot on the depth chart, but Gruden will not keep 4 running backs active on game day, so his special teams contributions are not enough to save him. Also, he just isn’t standing out in the crowd right now and may be available during the season if we ever need him.

Shaun Wilson also garnered some surprise consideration after strong punt returns against the Bengals. However, he ended the game against the Bengals with a knee injury that did not look good. If it is not season-ending, I would not be surprised to see them put Wilson on the PUP list to start the season and keep him part of the team.

As for the starter in week 5, I fully expect AP to start as the bell cow with Thompson getting 3^rd down duties and Guice handling a few carries here and there. However, I expect Guice to supplant AP after a few weeks and for the ratio to shift enough that Guice begins to edge out AP in carries per game. That being said, AP looked pretty fresh against the Bengals, so this may swap back and forth week to week.

Receivers (7)

On the Roster: Josh Doctson (S), Paul Richardson Jr. (S), Trey Quinn (S), Terry McLaurin, Robert Davis, Kelvin Harmon, Darvin Kidsy Jr.

Starters After Week 4: Josh Doctson, Terry McLaurin, Trey Quinn

Notable Cut: Cam Sims, Brian Quick

After my QB prediction, this will probably be 2^nd in line for most argued over. Let me first just ask the Cam Sims fans to chill. I know you want to freak out over this already. Just relax and keep reading.

First, Doctson is going to make this team. Please read that again. I’m not saying the Redskins wouldn’t be willing to deal him, but I seriously doubt there are buyers out there. Also, I legitimately believe that in year 3 (discounting missed rookie season) he will prove to be more of a volume contributor. Also, I think a QB like Keenum (my predicted starter), who is willing to throw those 50/50 balls all day in live action, will give Doctson more opportunity to shine than we’ve seen previously.

Now back to Cam Sims. The final 3 spots in this rotation are relatively interchangeable to me. However, Robert Davis seems to be hitting his stride and contributes more on special teams than Sims. Harmon is a relative lock as a rookie draft pick (plus he looked pretty special against the Bengals/Shawn Hochuli). This brought it down to Kidsy and Sims. A few weeks ago, I would have picked Sims 10/10 times. However, I really think Kidsy is impressing coaches both on offense and special teams (he did play with the starters against the Bengals… although so did Quick so take it with a grain of salt). Also, more importantly, he is tagged as the top back up in the slot. I know early reports said Sims was learning all 3 receiver spots, but I don’t think they really want him playing in the slot. Combine that with uncertainty over Quinn staying healthy and you see where I’m coming from. That being said, I do believe each of the 4 players vying for those final 3 spots could be relatively interchanged, so I would not be surprised if I am wrong.

As for the Week 5 starter, I do not expect Richardson to last long as the Z receiver. For everyone who though TMac would replace Doctson, I challenge you to really think about whose skill set he really replaces in this rotation. Also, even if Richardson is playing well, I just can’t commit myself to believing he and Quinn will both be healthy by week 5. In this projection, I’m picking Richardson to either be hurt or supplanted.

Tight Ends (4)

On the Roster: Jordan Reed (S), Vernon Davis, Jeremy Sprinkle, Matt Flanagan

Starter After Week 4: Jordan Reed

Notable Cut: J.P. Holtz, Donald Parham

Only real surprise here is the addition of Matt Flanagan. This is the 25^th player on the offensive side of the ball in my opinion. You will see below that I am projecting 9 players for the OLine, so if the Redskins keep Colt McCoy or decide to keep a 4^th running back (or even take an extra spot for the defense), it will mean either Flanagan or the 9^th lineman gets cut.

If you listened to Chris Cooley on his podcast, you know that he also thinks Flanagan is a great prospect at TE who can seemingly do it all. He’s also a solid contributor on special teams. With Jordan Reed’s injury history, this team will greatly benefit from a 4th TE that can be a relative jack of all trades. For my money, he’s the 25^th player on offense.

Offensive Line (9)

On the Roster: Donald Penn (S), Ereck Flowers (S), Chase Roullier (S), Brandon Scherff (S), Morgan Mosses (S), Geron Christian Sr., Wes Martin, Ross Pierschbacher, Tony Bergstrom

Starters After Week 4: Donald Penn, Wes Martin, Chase Roullier, Brandon Scherff, Morgan Moses

Notable Cut: N/A

Once I saw JP Finlay say he thought Trent Williams leaving was a foregone conclusion, I realized the writing is really on the wall. I really pray this doesn’t happen. If I’m lucky and Trent comes back to play, Tony Bergstrom (or potentially Donald Penn via trade) is the first person off the list.

Outside of Trent, there is nothing particularly shocking on the offensive line. Tony Bergstrom stays on the team as a dependable reserve at center but doesn’t make the team if Pierschbacher shows he can be relied on. In spite of injury issues on the offensive line the past two years, I would not be surprised to see the team keep 8 lineman in order to keep an additional player on he defense.

Most of you will probably think I am crazy for starting the season with Ereck Flowers at guard. To be honest, I don’t really like it either, but I think Gruden rides with him to start the season. As you can see, I expect him to struggle early and be replaced by Martin by Week 5.

I do know that Christian is listed as the starter right now, but Penn signed here to be the starter. It won’t take him past the preseason to secure his position.

Yes, I saw Penn give up a bad sack against the Bengals. Listen to Gruden’s post game comments where he says Penn was late off the ball due to a snap count error by Haskins. Penn is our best option by far if we don’t get Trent back.

Defense (25)

Defensive Line (5)

On the Roster: Jonathan Allen (S), Matt Ioannidis (S), Daron Payne (S), Tim Settle, Caleb Brantley

Starters After Week 4: Jonathan Allen, Matt Ioannidis, Daron Payne

Notable Cut: Ryan Bee, JoJo Wicker

This may be the easiest position group to forecast. There is talent behind these 5 players, but it just isn’t necessary to keep more than 5 defensive linemen.

First, much of our defense is predicated on rushing 2 OLBs with 2 DL on the line. Allen, Ioannidis, and Payne are going to be rotating with each other more than they will all 3 play at once. Combine that with Settle and Brantley being a clear step above the next level and there just isn’t a strong argument to keep 6.

Second, with how draft picks are going to impact the roster at linebacker and safety (Brailford and Apke), I don’t see room for another defensive lineman. That being said, injury concerns for Settle and Brantley could pave the way for Ryan Bee to make this squad. Even if both are healthy by week 1, the relative uncertainty could have Gruden keeping a 6th player on the defensive line instead of a 9th player on the offensive line.

Linebackers (9)

On the Roster: Ryan Kerrigan (S), Shaun Dion Hamilton (S), Jon Bostic (S), Montez Sweat (S), Cole Holcomb, Josh Harvey-Clemons, Ryan Anderson, Cassanova McKinzy, Jordan Brailford

Starters After Week 4: Ryan Kerrigan, Shaun Dion Hamilton, Jon Bostic, Montez Sweat

Notable Cut: Marcus Smith, Marquis Flowers

I didn’t really struggle identifying the 9 linebackers for the final roster, but placing them in the rotation was not as simple. Cole Holcomb could very well supplant either Hamilton or Bostic by week 5, but I just didn’t feel strongly enough to pencil it in right now. The truth is that none of the inside linebackers had strong performances against the Browns. However, I should point out that Bostic and JHC looked pretty good with the first unit against the Bengals.

I will say that Brailford is probably saved by being a rookie draft pick. I know he has talent, but it looks uncertain if he will be able to showcase those talents in the preseason due to injury.

It may seem like Sweat is a layup decision out OLB, but I actually took a pause to consider if Gruden would start Anderson and bring Sweat in on pass rushing downs. This may still happen, but I don’t think the Redskins brass risks having both of their 1^st round draft picks out of the starting rotation. I should note that this was only a consideration for the initial lineup. Sweat will own the job after week 4.

Cornerbacks (6)

On the Roster: Josh Norman (S), Quinton Dunbar (S), Fabian Moreau (S), Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Fabian Moreau, Jimmy Moreland, Greg Stroman Jr.

Starters After Week 4: Josh Norman, Quinton Dunbar, Fabian Moreau

Notable Cut: Adonis Alexander

Adonis Alexander is not currently healthy and has not looked good when he was. I predict Danny Johnson to start on the PUP so he is not a notable cut. If you followed me last season, you would now how much of a fan I am of Johnson (even though he struggled during the regular season). When healthy, I expect the Redskins to consider dropping Stroman/DRC if Moreland and Moreau continue to look strong.

I expect Josh Norman to have something of a resurgence this season after a strong camp. I also expect to see Dunbar back to his old self after seemingly being fully recovered from nerve issues last season.

After week 4, I don’t expect a ton of change here. I think DRC and Jimmy Moreland will probably be the first off the bench when the situation calls for more defensive backs. I expect the Redskins to rely on their corners in passing situations thanks to lack of depth at safety.

I don’t know if it will happen without injuries, but don’t be surprised to see Jimmy Moreland starting before the season is done! That kid is just a PLAYMAKER!

Safeties (5)

On the Roster: Landon Collins (S), Montae Nicholson (S), Deshazor Everett, Troy Apke, Jeremy Reaves

Starters After Week 4: Landon Collins, Montae Nicholson

Notable Cut: N/A

Can we all just take a moment and thank the heavens that Montae Nicholson is back without issues and seems to be doing well??

Apke makes this squad simply because of his draft status and raw (emphasized) athleticism. However, he absolutely cannot be depended on for any meaningful defensive snaps, which is why Jeremy Reaves makes the squad. Reaves should also contribute well on special teams, so don’t be surprised to see Apke inactive on gameday.

Keep in mind that Reaves is very vulnerable right now. If the Redskins need a free spot for another position and think they can manage through an injury (either through FA signing or having DRC fill in) he may get cut.

Special Teams (3)

Dustin Hopkins, Tress Way, Nick Sundberg

Not a whole lot of opinion with this one, as the Redskins didn’t bring in competition for any of them. I’m always a fan of competition, but I also feel like we have a good situation compared to most of the league (currently ignoring the horrible outing by Hopkins against the Bengals).

As always, thanks for reading. Follow me @TheBurgundyBD on Twitter and comment with your thoughts!

September 13, 2018 by The Burgundy Breakdown

4 REAL Reasons for Optimism After Week 1

Primary Photo Credit – Redskins Wire

After a big win in Week 1, it can be easy to get carried away with optimism. However, regardless of how good or bad the Cardinals are, here are the 4 REAL reasons to be optimistic for the season as a Redskins fan.

The funny thing about Sunday’s win against the Cardinals is that the Redskins were considered an underdog. However, after we win in DOMINATING fashion, the national media is quick to write off Arizona as a weak team. While I don’t disagree with that conclusion, it does show how low the national media is on the 2018 Redskins. Realistically, we won’t know until our Week 3 matchup with the Packers if the Redskins are a legitimate playoff contender (assuming Aaron Rodgers suits up). While we are definitely not good enough to overlook a Colts team led by a healthy Andrew Luck, another victory in Week 2 will not change anyone’s mind.

On the other side of the fence is the faction of Redskins fans that are ready to declare the team as Super Bowl favorites after a strong outing in Week 1. While I’m nowhere near ready to jump off that cliff, there were some things from Sunday that represent REAL reasons for optimism this season.

As always, if you enjoy the content, follow us @TheBurgundyBD and like/share/comment to let me know what you think! Also, don’t forget to check out my live Breakdowns on Twitter during the game!

Reason #1 – Alex Smith Looked Calm and Collected

Photo Credit – Full Press Coverage

The previous Quarterback of this team showed some big flashes over the past 3 seasons, but he also seemed to lose his mind when the play broke down (not always, but more frequently than I was ever happy with). There were several instances on Sunday where Smith was under unexpected pressure, and he maintained his composure every time. Equally as important as his two Touchdowns, Smith did not commit any turnovers in Week 1 against a team that forced 16 turnovers in the preseason.

One play in particular stands out to me the most. Early in the 3^rd Quarter, Robert Nkemdiche burst through the line and nearly got a sack/safety. In a split second, Smith recognized the rush and threw the ball out underhanded in the direction of Josh Doctson. This play will never make it onto the highlight reel, but this very easily could have been 2 points and possession for Arizona. Plays like this are exactly what Jay Gruden is looking for from Smith. We don’t need him to be an All-Pro Quarterback. We just need him to distribute the ball without turning it over.

Reason # 2 – Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson Look 100%

Photo Credit – Washington Times/Redskins.com

Reed and Thompson combined for 176 yards from scrimmage and 2 Touchdowns Sunday. Honestly, that’s really all that needs to be said, but that’s not all there is to say. Setting the stats aside, Reed and Thompson both looked like they were completely healthy. There didn’t appear to be any limitations on their usage or their capability.

Reed got consistent separation throughout the game in one on one situations and he looked like an All-Pro on his Touchdown catch, twisting his body and reaching out over the goal line at the last second. That athletic ability is rare, and it is the difference between being up 21-0 at half and the clock running out. Tony Gonzalez said that Reed is the best route running Tight End in the league when healthy, and I agree completely.

As for Thompson, he looked exactly like the Chris Thompson we saw before his injury last season. He was equally as fast and equally as shifty. On his Touchdown catch, he ran a beautiful fake slant to out route that exemplified his agility and skillset. If Reed and Thompson are both healthy for the majority of the season, we have a lot to look forward to on the Offensive side of the ball.

Reason #3 – Defensive Line Strength

Photo Credit – NBC Washington

During and after the game, many fans (myself included) were down on the lack of sacks and pass rush. However, as various writers have published video breakdowns (Mark Bullock being my current favorite), we’ve seen that perception is not always reality.

In fact, the pass rush was very strong against the Cardinals. Allen, Payne, and Ioannidis all had moments where they made the Cardinals Offensive Line look like a college team. On several occasions, Bradford faced immediate pressure and was forced to get the ball out early. On his interception to Dunbar (who looked great by the way), the pressure from the front 4 forced Bradford to shuffle and pass earlier than he wanted which likely contributed to overthrowing his receiver.

Also, what cannot be overlooked is the job this front did against David Johnson. Regardless of how weak the Cardinals Offensive Line may be, David Johnson is still a top 3-5 Running Back in this league, and holding him to 37 yards rushing is impressive. It is even more impressive when you consider that the Redskins spent the majority of the night dropping 7 and only rushing 4 to eliminate passing lanes for Bradford. If the Redskins can rely on the Defensive Line to hold strong while still dropping 7 into coverage, we may see one of the best Defensive seasons from the Redskins is over a decade.

Reason #4 – Adrian Peterson Looked Strong and Agile

Photo Credit – Zimbio

I’ll keep this one short and sweet. Nobody knew what we had in Adrian Peterson. Even after a solid performance against the Broncos in the preseason, there were still some questions about how he would fare in an entire game. While we still need to see how long he can last this season, Sunday went a long way to instill confidence in the fan base.

There’s only one play you need to watch from Sunday to get the full effect of Peterson’s impact. On 1^st and 10 in the 1^st Quarter, from their own 37 yard line, Peterson took a handoff to the right and was immediate met by Patrick Peterson in the backfield. AP flashed with his legendary jump-cut to juke the Cardinals’ stud Cornerback, and then followed that up with running Patrick Peterson over on his way to a 13 yard run. Honestly, I could watch that replay 100 times and it would still impress me.

If Adrian Peterson stays healthy all season, I predict 1,300+ yards and 12 Touchdowns. You can @ me if you don’t agree, but we can’t discount that this was a Cardinals defense that was 6^th in the league in 2017 in Rush Yards Allowed.

Questions from Around the League

How long can the Eagles hold up with Nick Foles playing less like last season and more like his days in St. Louis?
How many games will it take for Jerry Jones to call out Dak’s play in the media?
Can Aaron Rodgers play through his injury or are we staring at an injury plagued season similar to 2017?
Do we really expect the Ravens to be strong with Joe Flacco at the helm, or are the Bills just THAT bad?
Are the Rams on the verge of being the NFL’s next dynasty team?
How much money/time is Le’veon Bell willing to waste before he shows up to play for the Steelers?
Can Ryan Fitzpatrick play well enough to convince the Bucs to keep Winston on the bench when he returns from his suspension?
Can Sam Darnold and Patrick Mahomes replicate their success from Week 1?

As always, thanks for reading. Follow us @TheBurgundyBD and check out our live Breakdowns on Twitter during the game!

September 3, 2018September 3, 2018 by The Burgundy Breakdown

Redskins Week 1 Preview

Primary Photo Credit – Get More Sports

To kick off the season, the Redskins are traveling to Arizona to face the Cardinals on Sunday at 4:25pm EST. Here’s a complete Breakdown of everything I’ll be watching for this week, my score prediction for the game, and a few notes on what to watch for around the league.

After an entire offseason of hopes and dreams, followed by a few highs and some major lows during Training Camp and the Preseason, we have finally made it to the NFL Regular Season Week 1! Rejoice Redskins fans, there’s going to be meaningful football again on Sundays.

As of writing this article, the final 53-man roster (plus Practice Squad) is not 100% set. However, everyone who is going to play a role this week is, so let’s start looking forward!

To kick off the season, the Redskins are traveling to Arizona to face the Cardinals on Sunday at 4:25pm EST. Here’s a complete Breakdown of everything I’ll be watching for this week, my score prediction for the game, and a few notes on what to watch for around the league.

As always, if you enjoy the content, follow us @TheBurgundyBD and like/share/comment to let me know what you think! Also, don’t forget to check out our live Breakdowns on Twitter during the game!

Get a win. On the road. For Gruden.

This is one goal, but for three different reasons.

Get a win – It is absolutely imperative that the Redskins start off strong with wins against the Cardinals and the Colts, because these are seemingly the two easiest games on their schedule. While the Redskins overall schedule isn’t ranked very high in difficulty, it is heavily weighed down by these first two opponents. Weeks 3-17 for the Redskins represents the most difficult schedule in the NFL. Combine that with a week 4 bye week, and the Redskins will be in a deep hole early if they don’t win this week.

On the road – Our last playoff season was 2015. While we’re all hoping to recreate it this season, things must be different in 2018 to succeed. Often forgotten, the Redskins didn’t get a win on the road in 2015 until December 13^th. The only reason we made the playoffs was because of a 6-2 record at home. Combine three tough matchups within the NFC East with home games against the Packers, Panthers, and Falcons, and you have a recipe for disaster if we need to depend entirely on our home schedule to make the playoffs.

For Gruden – This one probably gets the most coverage. Gruden is 0-4 in season openers as the Redskins head coach, and he’s been facing a lot of scrutiny for not playing the starters more during the preseason. Even if we do start slow on Offense, flying home with a win is imperative to keep the media critics at bay.

Photo Credit – CBS Sports

What I’m watching for on Offense

Passing Attack – I’m looking to see if Alex Smith can get into a rhythm early in the game with some quick reads and play action bootlegs. I want to see if he reverts back to checking the ball down too often, or if he takes any deep shots to Doctson or Richardson. I’m sure we’ll see at least one to keep the safeties honest, but how early in the game does Gruden dial up the long pass?

Also, I’m curious who will be the focus of the game plan. Chris Thompson said this week that he isn’t having the same concerns he had during Training Camp regarding his leg. Does this mean he’ll get 5-6 plays designed for him in the passing game? What about Jordan Reed? Does Gruden trust Reed’s health enough to focus the game plan around his availability? And what about Crowder? Is he fully healthy and ready to be a major third down contributor from the slot?

Photo Credit – PennLive.com

Last, how do we stop Chandler Jones? He appears to line up primarily on the left side of the offense, so I’m not overly concerned here. Trent Williams is the best Left Tackle in the NFL. However, we could be at risk if the Cardinals move Chandler Jones around. If I was calling the plays, I would run the ball right at Jones a few times and let Trent push him around a little bit to set the tone. But that’s just me.

Photo Credit – WashingtonTimes.com

Rushing Attack – The only thing I’m really looking for from this game is to see how Gruden intends to spread the carries around. In spite of being a free agent for most of the offseason, Adrian Peterson is probably in the best physical shape of anyone in our backfield, so I don’t buy that he’ll need much relief during the game. If he is substituted for Perine or Kelley, it will be because of a conscious decision to limit his touches earlier in the season. However, expect some dirty looks from Peterson if he’s pulled out of the game for anyone other than Chris Thompson on third downs, because Peterson is going to be looking to prove something against his former team.

That being said, I’m also curious to see what types of looks Chris Thompson will get in the running game. Will he be strictly a third down back, or will they give him a larger portion of the Offense like they did last year?

Photo Credit – Zimbio

What I’m watching for on Defense

Pass Defense – The cardinals have a few talented young receivers, including the rookie from Texas A&M, Kirk. However, I’m only really concerned about stopping Larry Fitzgerald. In spite of his age, he is still clearly a top-flight receiver in this league, and I expect Sam Bradford to look for him on third downs and in clutch situations. Fitzgerald is very versatile, so he will likely line up against Norman, Dunbar, and Moreau at various points during the game. We won’t stop him entirely, but limiting him is key to limiting the Cardinals Offense.

Photo Credit – Getty Images

We also can’t forget about David Johnson. In 2016, Johnson caught 80 passes for the Cardinals. It is going to be imperative for our linebackers and corners to keep a close eye on him slipping out of the backfield. The last thing I want to see is our corners running man to man across the field, and Kerrigan realizing too late that Johnson is running out to the flat wide open on third and long. That would be a nightmare.

Photo Credit – Footballguys

Rush Defense – It isn’t exactly a secret that the Cardinals do not have a very strong Offensive Line. For that reason, I’m looking to see our Defensive Line dominate this week. They may not make the splash plays, but the Cardinals Offensive Line should rarely be able to climb to the Linebackers. For that reason, I’m looking for Zach Brown and Mason Foster to have a big day against David Johnson.

With Bradford being a timing quarterback, I don’t expect there to be much time for a pass rush to get home on most plays. Because of that, I’m looking for Kerrigan and Smith to make it their priority to set the edge and keep Johnson from bouncing a run to the outside. If we set the edge and the Defensive Line absorbs the blockers, Foster and Brown should be able to play instinctively throughout the game and keep the Cardinals rushing attack from gaining any momentum.

Photo Credit – @DCzWall

Predictions

Adrian Peterson rushes for over 100 yards and 2 TDs against his former team to prove last year was less about him and more about how poor the blocking was
Alex Smith throws for 250 yards with 1 TD and 0 Ints
Jordan Reed only gets a few targets, but flashes after the catch
Doctson gets 2 50/50 balls and comes down with 1
J. Swearinger and Josh Norman both get an INT
David Johnson is held to under 100 total yards
Larry Fitzgerald has 7 catches and 1 TD, but is the only highlight player for the Cardinals
Chandler Jones gets 1 sack, but is mostly held in check by Trent Williams
Bradford throws for 250 yards with 1 TD and 2 Ints
Redskins Win 27-17

Questions from Around the League

Will Nick Foles continue to struggle for the Eagles?
How does the Cowboys Offense look? Can Dak perform at a high level, and can Zeke find success behind a less-than-stellar Offensive Line?
Do we need to worry about the Giants now that Odell is back?
How will Aaron Rodgers handle a revamped Chicago Defense?
Will we see MVP Cam or Crybaby Cam from the Panthers this year?
Can Jon Gruden lead a resurgence of the Raiders?
Will the LA Rams Defense play to the level of their payroll?
Are the Browns legit or just a gimmick?
How many games will it take for RG3 to start in Baltimore? Just kidding… I think?

As always, thanks for reading. Follow us @TheBurgundyBD and check out our live Breakdowns on Twitter during the game Sunday!

August 29, 2018September 3, 2018 by The Burgundy Breakdown

Final 53-Man Roster Projection

It’s that time of year where everyone has an opinion of who should be on the Redskins final roster, and I’m no different. Here is the official 53-man roster prediction from #TheBurgundyBreakdown. This is the first and final version.

As always, if you enjoy the content, follow us on twitter @TheBurgundyBD and like/share/comment to let me know exactly why you think I’m right or wrong!

Offense (25)

Quarterbacks (2)

On the Roster: Alex Smith, Colt McCoy

Notable Cut: Kevin Hogan

No surprises here. With Hogan’s improved performance late against the Broncos and his familiarity with the offense, I think he’s a lock for the Practice Squad (unless someone signs him unexpectedly like when Philadelphia signed Nate Sudfeld last year). Also, he’s a local kid from Gonzaga HS (go Purple Eagles!), so I’m excited for however long he can continue donning the Burgundy and Gold.

Running Backs (4)

On the Roster: Adrian Peterson, Chris Thompson, Samaje Perine, Rob Kelley

Notable Cut: Byron Marshall, Kapri Bibbs

When I first typed this projection, I had Bibbs in over Kelley. However, Gruden interviewed with Chad Dukes from 106.7 The Fan this week, and it’s clear that he still views Kelley as the #2 guy behind Peterson. I don’t think they drop Perine, as he has shown growth from last year so far this preseason, which leaves Bibbs as the odd man out.

Gruden has brought up the need to keep a Chris Thompson specific back up on multiple occasions over the last few weeks, and this is why I originally had Bibbs making the squad (for the record- I have Byron Marshall over Bibbs, but Marshall isn’t currently healthy). However, consider what happened last season. Both Bibbs and Marshall were available mid-season, and I think the Redskins roll the dice that they could pull that off again in an emergency. I know some have said Chris Thompson won’t be truly 100% until mid-season, but they are going to play him in week 1. This means whoever his backup is will likely be a healthy scratch on game-day. Also, consider that Bibbs and Marshall are both eligible for the Practice Squad, and it would be very unlikely that you would lose both if you roll the dice.

All of this adds up to Kelley making the team, much to the chagrin of the fan base, while the Redskins try to stash Marshall and Bibbs on the practice squad.

Receivers (6)

On the Roster: Josh Doctson, Jamison Crowder, Paul Richardson Jr., Trey Quinn, Maurice Harris, Brian Quick

Notable Cut: Cam Sims

This will be the one prediction everyone freaks out about. Before you do, let me just say that I am a big Cam Sims fan, and I will be very happy to end up wrong and see him make this team. The reason I have Quick edging him out is simply because the coaching staff trusts Quick. Last season, with almost no playing time, Quick made a couple of clutch plays, and it is a lot harder than it looks to come into the game cold off the bench and produce reliably. With a certain level of uneasiness on the top end of the Receiver depth chart, the team looks to keep a sure thing.

That being said, I think they are successful in stashing Sims on the Practice Squad. After all, he was an UDFA, so it isn’t outlandish to think it can be pulled off.

Also, I have the Receivers listed in the order that I think they will play this season. This is sure to also piss off the Mo Harris fans out there. Again, let me clarify that I am a very big fan of Mo Harris. Quinn only edges him out because he plays in the slot. If the Redskins go with an empty backfield set, featuring four Receivers and one Tight End, I expect Quinn to play the slot opposite Crowder. Get mad if you want, but we’ve already seen Quinn play with the starters in this exact situation. Granted, Crowder wasn’t on the field, but it still made it very clear that Quinn is the top backup in the slot.

Tight Ends (4)

On the Roster: Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, Jeremy Sprinkle, J.P. Holtz

Notable Cut: N/A

The biggest surprise here (unless you read my Post-Game Breakdown over the weekend) has to be the addition of Holtz. I do not think Gruden would ever consider keeping a dedicated Fullback on this roster, but Holtz mitigates that by also contributing at Tight End (similar to Niles Paul in years past). With the health of Jordan Reed perpetually in the air, Holtz can provide some solid depth while also serving as the primary Fullback. We definitely don’t want to see Ty Nsekhe being passed off this season as a third Tight End if it can be avoided.

I saw that Peterson said he doesn’t necessarily need a Fullback to succeed, but Holtz certainly looked strong against the Broncos, including a pivotal block on the 4^th down conversion. We also don’t have the best blocking at the Tight End position to begin with, so I’ll be happy to see him make the team.

Offensive Line (9)

On the Roster: Trent Williams, Shawn Lauvao, Chase Roullier, Brandon Scherff, Morgan Mosses, Ty Nsekhe, Geron Christian Sr., Tony Bergstrom, Tyler Catalina

Notable Cut: Kyle Kalis, John Kling

I’m probably being a little generous calling Kalis and Kling notable cuts, but both had a small chance of cracking this roster (Kalis more than Kling since Kalis plays Guard). Kalis played the most plays of anyone on the team in the first preseason game, and he did not look good at all. For that reason, I’m giving the edge to Catalina (who also beat out Kalis last season for a final roster spot), but it could go either way. The reality here is that Bergstrom, who is strictly a Center from what I can tell, is our only serviceable backup in the interior.

Nsekhe remains our primary reserve Tackle, as I don’t think they trust Christian enough yet with that role to move Nsekhe to Guard. However, that’s only posturing on my part, and it is possible the real truth is that Nsekhe is too tall and long to be effective on the inside. Either way, I’m praying to God we stay healthy on the Offensive Line this year.

Defense (25)

Defensive Line (6)

On the Roster: Jonathan Allen, Matt Ioannidis, Daron Payne, Tim Settle, Anthony Lanier, Phil Taylor Sr.

Notable Cut: Ziggy Hood

I’m assuming Stacy McGee starts the season on the PUP, so he isn’t factored in at this point. The mild surprise here is the inclusion of Taylor over Hood. Several pundits have assumed Taylor is on the outside looking in because the team doesn’t need three Nose Tackles, and fifth round pick Tim Settle has looked very strong this preseason. While I agree with the theory, I disagree that the team views their situation that way.

Ioannidis has been dealing with a turf toe injury which means the team needs to consider their plan if he isn’t in the lineup. Many have assumed that makes a stronger case for Hood to make the roster because he is a natural Defensive End. However, I think Payne has shown enough versatility (combined with Settle looking very strong) to think they can get away with a starting lineup of Allen, Settle, and Payne if Ioannidis misses time.

In addition, when I think of my ideal goal line Defensive front, I envision Payne, Settle, and Taylor in the middle to go along with Allen and Ioannidis on either end. That would be a very strong front five in goal-to-go situations. Considering that Anthony Lanier is strictly a pass rushing Defensive End, swapping out Taylor for Lanier isn’t an option, and swapping out Taylor for Hood represents a clear downgrade in my opinion. Barring injury, I would only expect to utilize the last player on the Defensive Line depth chart in these goal-to-go situations. Combine that with Lanier looking very strong as a pass rusher, and Hood doesn’t make the squad.

Linebackers (9)

On the Roster: Ryan Kerrigan, Mason Foster, Zach Brown, Preston Smith, Pernell McPhee, Josh Harvey-Clemons, Ryan Anderson, Shaun Dion Hamilton, Martrell Spaight

Notable Cut: Zach Vigil, Pete Robertson

Most projections will separate Inside Linebackers from Outside Linebackers, but I’m combining them because I think they are connected at the bottom of the roster. Martrell Spaight has outperformed Zach Vigil so far this preseason, but his special teams play is also the reason I believe the team is willing to drop Pete Robertson. While Robertson has flashed as a pass rusher, I don’t think the Redskins are too worried about that position if they suffer an injury. For the record, I do think Pete Robertson will be available for the practice squad, so he wouldn’t be truly gone anyway. Also, even if someone does pick up Robertson, Junior Galette is still available, and he makes a pretty good pass rush specialist from my recollection.

Spaight’s strong performance, combined with a very promising showing from Shaun Dion Hamilton, will force the Redskins to keep five Inside Linebackers. Unless they feel like Pete Robertson’s Special Teams contribution is more valuable than a sixth Receiver or fourth Tight End, I don’t see the Redskins keeping more than four Outside Linebackers.

Cornerbacks (6)

On the Roster: Josh Norman, Quinton Dunbar, Fabian Moreau, Danny Johnson, Greg Stroman Jr., Adonis Alexander

Notable Cut: N/A

No real surprises here. In my mind, the Redskins are actually fortunate that Josh Holsey is going to start the season on the PUP list, because I do not see how you keep seven Cornerbacks on this roster, and each of the guys listed above need to make the squad in my opinion.

If you want to include Ranthony Texada as a Notable Cut, be my guest. The only surprise with this group will be the depth chart. The current depth chart on Redskins.com has Adonis Alexander above both Stroman and Johnson. I have them listed above in the order I feel they should be in, but I have also only seen Alexander play in one game (although he did have strong game from a coverage standpoint). Regardless of how the depth chart plays out, I am very excited about the talent rookies at the Cornerback position!

Safeties (4)

On the Roster: D.J. Swearinger, Montae Nicholson, Deshazor Everett, Troy Apke

Notable Cut: Quin Blanding, Kenny Ladler, Fish Smithson

In my opinion, Apke only cracks this roster because he is a fourth round draft pick. That being said, the Redskins cut Matt Ioannidis (fifth round pick) his rookie year and successfully got him onto the Practice Squad. In a perfect world, the Redskins stash Apke on the Practice Squad and keep either Blanding or Ladler. Unfortunately, this isn’t a perfect world and Apke makes the cut.

I will say that Apke’s speed has been apparent on the field, but so has his struggles with tackling. While the Redskins might have a tough time getting Blanding or Ladler on the Practice Squad, there are Safeties on the market if we get into a pinch (see Eric Reid and Obi Melifonwu as options that are talented and young).

Special Teams (3)

Dustin Hopkins, Tress Way, Nick Sundberg

Not a whole lot of opinion with this one, as the Redskins didn’t bring in competition for any of them. I’m always a fan of competition, but I also feel like we have a good situation compared to most of the league. For Hopkins specifically, this will be a huge year for him after being injured much of last season.